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Mesoscale Discussion 1512
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1512
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0905 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040205Z - 040400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL OVER NERN MT THROUGH 03-04Z. DUE TO EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
   AND SHORT DURATION OF REMAINING SEVERE EVENTS...A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MID-EVENING THREE SUPERCELLS PERSIST OVER NERN MT
   AND ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. THIS REGION EXISTS WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CRESTING THE TOP OF AN
   UPPER RIDGE. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   STORM SCALE PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS MAY
   HELP TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY
   EVENTUALLY SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 08/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48030869 47640731 47630636 47580523 47240431 46470491
               46820730 47470889 48030869 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2014
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