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Mesoscale Discussion 1513
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1017 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF ERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240317Z - 240345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL IN MINER COUNTY WILL POSE THE RISK FOR ALL SVR
   HAZARDS AS IT TRACKS EWD/ESEWD IN THE SHORT-TERM. SUCH POTENTIAL
   WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED AND SHORT-DURATION FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS MOVING EWD/ESEWD ACROSS MINER COUNTY IN
   A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. HIGH THETA-E IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S HAS ALLOWED
   MLCINH TO BE SLOW TO INCREASE...WHILE THE FSD VWP HAS INDICATED A
   STRONG INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SRH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND MAX. THE
   SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
   /WIND...HAIL...AND TORNADO/...AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST MODERATE-STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL
   LIKELY POSE SIMILAR RISKS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE IT ADVANCES
   INTO COOLER AIR WITH RELATED INHIBITION ENHANCED BY DIABATIC SFC
   COOLING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   44049782 44209744 44129698 43909710 43899742 43959772
               44049782 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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