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Mesoscale Discussion 1513
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1513
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 041906Z - 042030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 80S
   ACROSS IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
   REMAINED LARGELY IN THE MID 60S.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE REMOVAL
   OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHILE MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 1500
   J/KG.  MEANWHILE...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE FOR
   PERSISTENT/SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF IA.  THE MAIN
   UNCERTAINTY WILL BE STORM COVERAGE IN THE AREA OF GREATER RISK FOR
   LONGER-LIVED STORMS ACROSS NW IA...WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS WILL
   BE SHORTER-LIVED AND AT MOST A MARGINAL HAIL RISK CLOSER TO THE MS
   RIVER.  SINCE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...STORM
   DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON SHALLOW ASCENT ALONG THE
   DIFFUSE REINFORCING FRONTAL SEGMENT DRIFTING SWD FROM MN INTO NRN IA
   THIS AFTERNOON.  BASED ON THIS SETUP...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH APPEARS TO BE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS AREA
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
   REASONING.

   ..THOMPSON/CORFIDI.. 08/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43519499 43499370 43429285 43129220 42739174 42299174
               41799211 41659295 41799440 42149553 42529625 42929653
               43379646 43519499 

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Page last modified: August 04, 2014
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