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Mesoscale Discussion 1514
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0721 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 050021Z - 050215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MO MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO
   THE EXPECTED VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING
   WITHIN ZONE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN
   MO. VWP DATA FROM KANSAS CITY SHOW WINDS VEERING FROM SWLY NEAR THE
   SFC TO NWLY 25 KT AT 4 KM. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN 35-40 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND RADAR DATA INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
   ROTATION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1500-2000 J/KG
   MLCAPE. HOWEVER...OBSERVED AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SHOW
   WEAK /6-6.5 C/KM/ 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES DUE TO A WARM LAYER ALOFT
   WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL UPDRAFT INTENSITY AND HAIL SIZE.
   NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...HAIL TO AT
   LEAST 1-1.5 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
   EVENING.

   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 08/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39819428 40109353 40339259 40049201 39589203 39129255
               38989353 39269427 39819428 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2014
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