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Mesoscale Discussion 1514
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1514
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1028 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND / NWRN AND W-CNTRL MN / NERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...

   VALID 240328Z - 240400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS TRANSITIONING TO AN ISOLD SEVERE WIND
   GUST RISK ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A MOISTURE
   RESERVOIR OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WITH THE ERN BOUND OF THE RICHER
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DELINEATED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE
   MN/DAKOTAS BORDER.  RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CONSOLIDATION
   AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SQUALL LINE ACROSS E-CNTRL ND.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD AND POSE PRIMARILY A STRONG TO SEVERE
   WIND GUST THREAT AS IT CROSSES THE RED RIVER /FROM NORTH TO SOUTH/
   IN THE 04-06Z PERIOD.  DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ OVER THE
   ERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING /REFERENCE KABR AND KFSD VAD DATA/...THE
   RICH MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO INFILTRATE THE AREAS OVER WRN
   MN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS BUOYANCY AND CORRESPONDING LOWER
   POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS
   MOVE INTO CNTRL AND N-CNTRL MN LATER TONIGHT.  WHILE AN ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL/WIND RISK MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR
   OVER NERN SD...CURRENT THINKING IS THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THESE
   STORMS WILL NOT NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM
   OVER W-CNTRL MN.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL MONITOR
   CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENT TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..SMITH.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45559921 46879913 48129864 48999653 48769471 47859437
               46509538 45669603 45359659 45239780 45559921 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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