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Mesoscale Discussion 1515
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...CNTRL AND NRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448...

   VALID 240541Z - 240745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 448
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF STORMS
   MOVES SEWD INTO THE FAR SERN PART OF WW 448 OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT
   SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME. A LOCAL EXTENSION IN AREA AND
   TIME HAS BEEN DONE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTRL MN. ALTHOUGH WW
   ISSUANCE TO THE SE OF WW 448 APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE ACTIVITY WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1004 MB LOW OVER NERN
   SD WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO ERN ND. AN AXIS
   OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN ERN SD TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
   ACROSS ERN ND AND WRN MN. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHICH IS FUELING THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   NEAR THE ND-MN STATELINE AND ACROSS FAR NERN SD. THE ACTIVITY IS
   BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ESEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS...THE CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER WEAKER INSTABILITY AND WEAKER
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WW 448. HOWEVER...THE STORMS
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR A FEW
   MORE HOURS BEFORE BECOME MARGINAL DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45559921 46879913 48129864 48999653 48769471 47859437
               46509538 45669603 45359659 45239780 45559921 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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