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Mesoscale Discussion 1515
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1515
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT TUE AUG 05 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN PA/SRN NY ENEWD ACROSS VT/NH/SRN ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 051901Z - 052000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR ISOLATED/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL
   WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ONGOING DESTABILIZATION
   ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
   FRONT...WHERE DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER IS
   COMBINING WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO YIELD AROUND
   1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.

   WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT FROM
   CENTRAL NY ENEWD...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS CONTINUE TO CONGEAL
   ACROSS WRN NY/NWRN PA AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
   LOWER MI VICINITY.  

   AREA VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/MODERATE WLY FLOW
   THROUGH THE LOWEST HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF
   EWD-MOVING/MULTICELL-TYPE STORMS.  A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED THUS FAR...AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THE REMAINDER OF
   THE AFTERNOON WHERE LOW-END SEVERE RISK PERSISTS.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 08/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   45337022 44776969 43187081 41627562 41447863 42107750
               42827678 44617265 45337022 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2014
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