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Mesoscale Discussion 1516
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NE AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 061958Z - 062200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PULSE TO LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE
   CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH PW VALUES CHARACTERIZED BY
   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A MODERATELY
   BUOYANT AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS ALONG A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
   ZONE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
   FORMED OVER SE MO WHICH MAY COALESCE INTO A SLOW SE-MOVING CLUSTER
   ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST PER AMDAR DATA
   INVOF STL AND MEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE GREATER
   ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY...SPORADIC MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE MAY
   OCCUR.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37799090 37898991 37758877 37358782 36898767 36248761
               35668773 35288816 34968849 34958926 35028987 35709069
               36469102 36849123 37799090 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2014
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