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Mesoscale Discussion 1516
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE SD...MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240723Z - 240830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND SRN MN IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD ACROSS
   WRN AND CNTRL MN. WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS ONGOING IN MUCH OF NW MN EXTENDING SEWD
   ACROSS SCNTRL MN. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS BUT IS STILL IN A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25 TO 35 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT ON
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT SHOULD
   GRADUALLY DECREASE AND NEW WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   REGION.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   47219433 47239541 46819628 46469662 45589687 44799701
               44329670 43919582 43889448 44509343 46699341 47219433 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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