Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1517
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1517 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0528 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MN...WRN WI...NE AND CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241028Z - 241300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SE MN AND IA OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MN WITH SEVERAL
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AT THE SRN END OF THE MCS IN
   SE MN AND FAR NRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
   A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MUCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE
   1000 TO 1800 J/K RANGE BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...A 30 TO
   45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED FROM NE NEB INTO SW MN WITH THE
   THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER FLOW. THIS
   COMBINED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL
   MORE HOURS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE SEWD BUT SHOULD DEVELOP SWD AND REMAIN TIED TO THE ERN EDGE OF
   THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE WSR-88D VWP AT MINNEAPOLIS SHOWS SOME
   SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH
   THE STRONGER ELEVATED ROTATING STORMS. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN
   NOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   45179232 45129373 44369393 43479387 41999380 41509320
               41799163 44379156 45179232 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 24, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities