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Mesoscale Discussion 1517
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1517
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0301 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/W CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062001Z - 062200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION INCREASING ACROSS ERN KS WILL POSE
   ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS ATTM...AHEAD OF A
   WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT CROSSING CENTRAL KS.  DIURNAL
   HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ HAS PUSHED
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE INTO THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA -- SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH.

   THAT SAID...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS WEAK...WHICH
   SHOULD HINDER OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL.  WITH WIND
   MAGNITUDE THROUGH THE LOWEST HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE AND 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR BOTH AROUND 20 KT...SOME MULTICELL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
   POSSIBLE LOCALLY -- WITH ASSOCIATED RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   AND/OR WIND AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO WRN MO THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  PRECLUDING APPRECIABLE UPSCALE GROWTH OF
   THE CONVECTION...WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE REQUIRED.

   ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39699610 39999471 39359345 38659309 37939382 37739607
               38289627 39699610 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2014
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