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Mesoscale Discussion 1518
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241859Z - 242100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE
   THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH A JET MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH CENTERED OVER NRN MAINE/SRN NEW BRUNSWICK...ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY DEPICTS TOWERING CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF UPSTATE ERN NY...SRN
   VT...AND SRN NH...MOVING SEWD WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND EXTENDING INTO MUCH OF MA/CT/RI
   IS EXPECTED THOUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 

   THERMODYNAMICALLY SPEAKING...THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINAL TO
   SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
   70S TO LOWER 80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...AND MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED AROUND 250-750 J/KG PER LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS.
   HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP AND HRRR ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA INDICATE SEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH
   THE UPPER TROUGH MAY ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF HAIL...SOME OF
   WHICH MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS. GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NWLY
   WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT PER KENX VWP SUGGESTS STORMS MAY
   OCCASIONALLY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO POSE A MARGINAL
   SEVERE RISK...AS EVIDENCED BY AN ISOLATED CELL OVER
   WASHINGTON/SARATOGA COUNTIES IN ERN NY THAT RECENTLY PRODUCED 1 INCH
   DIAMETER HAIL. REGARDLESS...THE LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS IS EXPECTED
   TO KEEP THE SEVERE RISK TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO SUPPORT WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..GLEASON/DIAL.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   41217199 41687299 42997417 43297426 43527354 43087164
               42847050 42567057 42207060 41917046 41557041 41397125
               41217199 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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