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Mesoscale Discussion 1518
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1518
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071851Z - 072115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
   LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCS MAY OCCUR WITH POTENTIALLY A GREATER RISK FOR
   SEVERE WINDS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE HAS
   INTENSIFIED OVER THE SRN DENVER METRO AREA WITH HAIL REPORTED UP TO
   QUARTER SIZE. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON THE FRINGE OF STRONG
   HIGH-LEVEL SWLYS /PER AMDAR DATA INVOF DEN/ DOWNSTREAM OF A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN. STRONG SPEED SHEAR
   BETWEEN 500-300 MB WILL FAVOR HAIL PRODUCTION WITH INITIAL
   UPDRAFTS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS THE I-25
   CORRIDOR. BUT WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW PER FTG/PUX/CYS/GLD
   VWP DATA...SUSTAINABILITY OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS IN QUESTIONABLE.

   AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS SWD ALONG THE FRONT
   RANGE...COALESCING OF UPDRAFTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   MASS RESPONSE AND MODERATE BUOYANCY TOWARDS THE KS BORDER...MAY
   FOSTER A DEEPENING COLD POOL. THIS COULD YIELD AN INCREASE IN THE
   SEVERE WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF SE CO AND FAR W KS TOWARDS EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 08/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   40270453 40410375 40230227 39960166 39460134 38320114
               37460130 37010205 36900290 36870373 36950425 37820493
               38860525 39900481 40270453 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2014
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