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Mesoscale Discussion 1519
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1519
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...EXTREME SWRN NEB...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...

   VALID 072148Z - 072315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES WITHIN REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED AND A DOWNSTREAM WW IS
   POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX OF SVR TSTMS EXHIBITING A PRONOUNCED BOWING
   SEGMENT CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT AROUND 30 KTS WITH A RECENT WIND
   GUST TO 56 KT AT AKRON CO. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THIS COMPLEX NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF WW PRIOR TO 2230Z. THE ENVIRONMENT
   DOWNSTREAM IS CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND A
   MODEST ELY COMPONENT TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW THRU AROUND 2 KM AGL...WITH
   W/NWLY FLOW ABOVE RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS. THE
   COMPLEX MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A SVR RISK E OF CURRENT WW...WITH NEW
   DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN PORTION OF THE GUST FRONT. 
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW WW PRIOR TO
   2230Z.

   FARTHER SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER SERN CO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
   OF INCREASING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
   ORGANIZE INTO A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH A SVR WIND AND HAIL THREAT
   ACROSS SERN CO...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF W-CENTRAL/SWRN KS
   AFTER 00Z.

   ..BUNTING/GUYER.. 08/07/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37050251 37050379 37160430 38220450 39370433 40010433
               40360417 40580400 40760341 40990252 41140174 41060099
               40600033 39930029 38240060 37220143 37050251 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2014
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