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Mesoscale Discussion 1520
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0712 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...SWRN NEB...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 454...455...

   VALID 080012Z - 080145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   454...455...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A LOCAL TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
   WW 454 MAY BE NEEDED FOR SVR THREAT CONTINUING BEYOND 01Z. THE
   SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 455.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 454...PARTICULARLY FROM SRN ELBERT COUNTY EWD TO
   LINCOLN COUNTY...WHERE INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED BETWEEN
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. BY 01Z OR SO...EXPANDING
   OUTFLOW/CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REDUCE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH
   OF CENTRAL/SRN PORTION OF WW AND RESULT IN AN OVERALL DIMINISHING
   SVR THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LOCALIZED SVR THREAT WILL EXIST
   BEYOND 01Z HOWEVER...AND A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION IN TIME MAY BE
   NEEDED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL. 

   ALTHOUGH THE BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS NWRN KS REMAINS GENERALLY SUB
   SVR...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE
   LINE AND AT LEAST SOME SVR POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
   IN A DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG AND 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.

   STRONG/ISOLD SVR TSTMS OVER SERN CO APPEAR TO BE CONGEALING INTO A
   MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...AND THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   INTO SWRN KS APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED SVR POTENTIAL WITH
   LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AND LOW-MID 60S DEW POINTS.

   ..BUNTING.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38520491 39240462 39600357 40460252 40460217 40480163
               40310114 40030078 39720074 38900049 38280059 37880075
               37440098 37110119 36990174 37040248 37270360 37670408
               38520491 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2014
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