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Mesoscale Discussion 1520
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1520
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NWRN KS...SWRN/S CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242057Z - 242230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
   EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF WEAK
   PERTURBATIONS ...WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
   WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUBTROPICAL
   HIGH CENTER...MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE INITIATION OF BOUNDARY
   LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT NORTHEAST OF GOODLAND...NEAR THE
   NEBRASKA BORDER.  THIS IS WITHIN THE HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. 
   CAPE IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT IS
   CONSIDERABLY LARGER...BUT SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION GENERALLY REMAINS
   FOR THESE PARCELS.  

   IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE
   NEAR THE IMMEDIATE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE HOT/DRY AND COOL/MOIST AIR
   COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY THROUGH 23-00Z.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...THERE APPEARS SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /LARGELY THROUGH
   CHANGE OF DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT/ TO SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN
   FLOW IS RATHER LIGHT /GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT/...THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND THE POSSIBLE
   EVOLUTION OF A STRENGTHENING AND FORWARD /EASTWARD/ PROPAGATING
   SURFACE COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/DIAL.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39940197 40440110 40679948 40309750 39719801 39310018
               39240183 39940197 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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