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Mesoscale Discussion 1521
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0514 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL MN...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242214Z - 242345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
   EVENING...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...WHICH RENDERS THE
   NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE UNCERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ALONG A COLD FRONT NEAR
   BRD...WITH A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NOW LOCATED OVER MILLE LACS LAKE AT
   22Z. RADAR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION ON
   THE FRONT BOTH TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS STORM. EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES...GIVEN MODERATE MLCAPE IN PLACE PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS.
   HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LIMITED AND CONVERGENCE IS WEAK
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL LIKELY TEND TO LIMIT STORM COVERAGE
   AND POTENTIALLY HINDER THE INTENSITY OF UPDRAFTS THAT DO BECOME
   ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT...THE NEED FOR WW IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
   REMAINS POSSIBLE IF MULTIPLE ORGANIZED STORMS APPEAR IMMINENT.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45039461 46139433 46499328 46719240 46749144 46989086
               46759007 46338971 45508951 45139091 44899228 44809350
               45039461 

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Page last modified: July 24, 2015
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