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Mesoscale Discussion 1521
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1521
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 080018Z - 080215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO
   INDICATE AN UPTICK IN DEEP CONVECTION INVOF A SFC TROUGH ANALYZED
   NW/SE ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF N
   TX. RELATIVELY MOISTER AIR E OF THE TROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY
   DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY IN A DEEPLY
   MIXED ENVIRONMENT OWING TO ANTECEDENT DIURNAL HEATING -- REF. 00Z
   AMA RAOB. WHILE THIS RAOB AND THE AMA VWP SAMPLE A WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT -- 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 10-20 KT -- CONVECTIVE
   REGENERATION WILL BE PREFERENTIALLY FAVORED ALONG ERN/SERN FLANKS OF
   CONGEALING COLD POOLS. RELATED PROPAGATION EFFECTS MAY SUPPORT A
   TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR IN THE
   STEEP-LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
   OCCUR...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RAOB INDICATES AROUND 1500 J/KG OF
   DCAPE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A
   MORE ORGANIZED SVR RISK FROM ENSUING.

   ..COHEN/GUYER.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34460037 35230160 36530237 36880212 36930102 36720028
               35380002 34460037 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2014
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