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Mesoscale Discussion 1522
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1522
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...WRN IA...EXTREME NERN KS/NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 242347Z - 250115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH A
   PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

   DISCUSSION...A SEVERE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED EAST OF LNK AS OF
   2345Z...ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A VERY WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /AS INDICATED BY
   ACCAS FIELD SPREADING EWD OVER THE AREA/ IS RESULTING IN VERY LARGE
   CAPE...WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 5000 J/KG PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS.
   WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RELATIVELY MODEST...EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30
   KTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORM
   STRUCTURES...GIVEN THE EXTREME INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE AT PEAK INTENSITY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL CELL...WHILE LOCALLY
   DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING...SO WITH
   A POTENTIALLY LIMITED DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT...THE NEED FOR WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40069730 40599707 41299643 42199582 42569546 42769492
               42739435 41779386 40599531 40139608 39889633 39849710
               40069730 

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