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Mesoscale Discussion 1523
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 081941Z - 082145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/SD BORDER SHOULD STRENGTHEN
   AND DEVELOP SE ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH CNTRL NEB.
   ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CENTERED
   OVER THE BLACK HILLS...A TSTM CLUSTER HAS FORMED FROM JACKSON COUNTY
   SD TO CHERRY COUNTY NEB. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU IS EVIDENT ALONG A
   WEAK FRONT S OF THIS CLUSTER THROUGH CNTRL NEB. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN THE CLOUD FREE AREAS INVOF
   FRONT TO MIDDLE 70S IN STRATOCUMULUS E OF THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN
   MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PROBABLE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   TO THE SE INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS BROADLY
   SUPPORTED BY HRRR AND NMM-B/WRF-BASED CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE.

   ALTHOUGH LNX VWP DATA LACKS DEEPER SCATTERERS...IT IS PROBABLE THAT
   A BELT OF MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL W/SWLYS EXISTS S OF THE CURRENT
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL NEB. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   SELYS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL AND
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AMIDST MODERATE BUOYANCY ON THE
   FRINGE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE ANTICIPATED.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

   LAT...LON   43050190 43310151 43400064 43199984 42709940 41389876
               40359842 39939871 39809921 39909999 40390048 41510104
               42070136 42700184 43050190 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2014
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