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Mesoscale Discussion 1524
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1524
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0453 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA...TEXAS
   PANHANDLE...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082153Z - 090030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE ALONG A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY THAT
   ARCS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE SEWD INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF N TX.
   ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEEP MIXING/PBL CIRCULATIONS
   IN THE HOT AIR W OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL SUPPORT FURTHER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   SLIGHT ENHANCEMENTS TO MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
   WEAK IMPULSES STREAMING NEWD ACROSS THE REGION ARE FOSTERING
   MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS -- ESPECIALLY
   E OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WHERE BACKED/ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   PRESENT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE AMA VWP...WHICH INDICATES AROUND
   35 KT OF 0-6-KM BULK SHEAR. ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE FROM THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND
   SPREAD EWD/NEWD INTO WRN OK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SUCH
   POTENTIAL WOULD BE ENCOURAGED BY LOW-LEVEL ELY/S ENHANCING INFLOW
   AMIDST MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG E OF THE BOUNDARY.

   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SPORADIC INSTANCES OF
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY.
   HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A DEARTH OF DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE ABSENCE OF A MORE
   SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATION. AND...WITH GENERALLY MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS NOT PRESENTLY
   EXPECTED...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35800166 36450051 36469861 35619792 34749816 34249927
               34130078 35800166 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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