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Mesoscale Discussion 1525
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND FAR NE KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 250533Z - 250800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
   HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SE NEB AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF FAR SW IA...NE KS
   AND NW MO. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW OVER SW IA WITH
   A MOIST AXIS ACROSS ERN KS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SRN IA WHERE SFC
   DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
   ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. AN MCS IS ONGOING ON THE
   NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IS FORECAST BY SHORT-TERM
   MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CONTINUE EWD INTO FAR SW IA AND NW MO OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE WSR 88D-VWP
   AT TOPEKA SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH WINDS VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM
   ORGANIZATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CELLS. RECENTLY
   AT 0511Z...A MEASURED 50 KT GUST AT LINCOLN WAS OBSERVED AND WIND
   DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CLUSTER TRACKS EWD.
   HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39629315 39399382 39669521 40199694 40459730 41049723
               41319649 41269519 41109421 40679308 39629315 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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