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Mesoscale Discussion 1525
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0516 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082216Z - 090045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LOOSELY ORGANIZED...
   AMALGAMATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING EWD FROM E-CNTRL GA TOWARD
   THE SC BORDER...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NWD FROM THE LOWER
   SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
   SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN SC...WHERE STRONG INSOLATION HAS
   ENCOURAGED DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. WHERE
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS NOT ALREADY OCCURRED...MLCAPE AROUND
   1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER --
   E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. AND...WITH AROUND 30 KT OF 0-6-KM
   BULK SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE CAE VWP -- ENHANCED BY A ZONE OF MODEST
   WLY/S SURMOUNTING 10-KT LOW-LEVEL ELYS -- SUSTAINED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY STRONG...PERHAPS DMGG...WIND GUSTS.
   RELATIVELY HIGH PW -- E.G. AROUND 1.7-1.9 INCHES PER GPS DATA --
   WILL BOLSTER WATER-LOADING PROCESSES TO ENCOURAGE SUCH POTENTIAL.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...ANY SVR-TSTM RISK
   SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   33338196 34138253 34338154 33707902 32987951 32958085
               33338196 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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