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Mesoscale Discussion 1526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251247Z - 251515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN
   SD AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE SD-NEB STATELINE. ALTHOUGH THE
   SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...A WW WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
   ONGOING IN SRN NEB LOCATED ALONG A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
   SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 60S F WITH THE
   ACTIVITY LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF
   INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS SRN
   SD...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP-LAPSE RATES FROM ERN
   WY INTO SWRN SD WHERE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
   7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE RAPID CITY WSR-88D VWP
   SHOWS A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
   IN THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE. AS THE CELLS IN FAR NERN JACKSON COUNTY SD
   AND IN FAR SERN HAAKON COUNTY MOVE ESEWD AT ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS SRN
   SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CORES. HAIL WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44100122 43720137 43310074 42939960 43039896 43729898
               44079939 44130036 44100122 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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