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Mesoscale Discussion 1526
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL NEB AND FAR SOUTHERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082229Z - 090030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL
   NEB...AND POSSIBLY IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SD. GIVEN
   THAT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD STILL SOMEWHAT
   INCREASE...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB.

   DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SMALL ASYMMETRIC SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO
   PROGRESS GENERALLY EASTWARD NEAR THE SD/NEB BORDER VICINITY. A
   NORTHERN PERIPHERY/COMMA-HEAD EMBEDDED VORTEX MAY RESULT IN A
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
   SD...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE EAST ACROSS
   SOUTHEAST SD SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND AS
   IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

   MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO OCCUR ON THE
   SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE MCS IN VICINITY OF ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW...WITH
   SOME ADDITIONAL HIGHER-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS THE
   NEB PANHANDLE AS OF 22Z. IT APPEARS THAT CONVERGENCE HAS SOMEWHAT
   INCREASED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEB IN
   VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A NEARBY NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
   ORIENTED WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE/CORRIDOR OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. 

   IN THIS SCENARIO...ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AS THE MCS-ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
   INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT. A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /1500+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND AS MUCH AS 35-40 KT
   OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR /NORTH PLATTE-THEDFORD WSR-88D VWP/ WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. WHILE THE OVERALL EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE
   RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD STILL
   NEEDED IF APPRECIABLE UPSCALE ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.

   ..GUYER/WEISS.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42310207 42800062 43460040 43299859 42309857 40759938
               41660225 42310207 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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