Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1527 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0549 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082249Z - 090115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS INTO THE
   EVENING HOURS. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS W-CNTRL AR TO THE OK BORDER S OF FORT SMITH. MOSAIC RADAR
   IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME RECENT TENDENCY FOR MULTICELLS TO MERGE...AND
   CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREFERENTIALLY REGENERATE INTO THE
   VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY SRN AR.
   THIS IS WHERE DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE-70S SFC DEWPOINT YIELDS
   3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...MAY
   ENSUE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. IF A MORE ORGANIZED...LARGER-SCALE COLD
   POOL WERE TO EVOLVE FROM THE DEVELOPING MASS OF CONVECTION...20-KT
   NNWLYS ABOVE 2 KM AGL SAMPLED BY THE LZK VWP MAY SUPPORT A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAPABLE OF GREATER DMGG-WIND
   COVERAGE. HOWEVER...SFC OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THE LACK OF A
   STRONG...LARGER-SCALE COLD POOL...WHICH CASTS DOUBT IN THIS
   POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/08/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34599437 35209303 35069216 34199176 33329187 33149314
               33529414 34599437 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 09, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities