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Mesoscale Discussion 1527
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1527
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251558Z - 251730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A SHORT TERM THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SERN SD NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
   HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY
   BEGIN TO WEAKEN. UNLESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE...A WW
   WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED DURATION AND
   SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS /AT TIMES
   EXHIBITING BOWING CHARACTERISTICS/ IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SD AT
   AROUND 30-35 KT. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG ERN FRINGE OF
   INSTABILITY AXIS...AND THOUGH STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS OCCURRING
   IN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR...INSTABILITY IS MORE LIMITED DUE TO
   THE NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS
   INDICATES AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SERN MN. THE
   CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE HAS ADVECTED DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC
   LAYER WITHIN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS SERN SD...ERN NEB...SRN
   MN AND NWRN IA AS INDICATED BY 12Z RAOBS FROM OMAHA...MINNEAPOLIS
   AND ABERDEEN. WHILE SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...EVENTUAL MIXING OF SOME OF THIS DRY AIR
   INTO THE NEAR-SFC LAYER WILL RESULT IN LESS CAPE THAN WOULD BE
   SUGGESTED BY CONSIDERING SFC DEWPOINTS ALONE. THESE COMPETING
   FACTORS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A MORE SUSTAINED SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
   REGION. NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A NEAR TERM
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42979704 43239813 43989816 44229732 43639660 42979704 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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