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Mesoscale Discussion 1528
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1528
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 251921Z - 252115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG...GUSTY WINDS AND
   SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER ECNTRL LOWER MI HAIL THIS
   AFTERNOON. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED...AND A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND
   JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS NCNTRL THROUGH
   ECNTRL LOWER MI. THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING...BUT
   WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING MLCAPE TO AOB 1000 J/KG. WV
   IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT
   LAKES...AND AT LEAST MODEST DEEPER LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ATTENDANT TO THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH
   25-35 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL PROMOTE MULTICELLS WITH SOME
   EMBEDDED MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43408510 43528379 43558268 43068254 42188327 42508520
               43088559 43408510 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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