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Mesoscale Discussion 1529
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND FAR NORTHERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456...

   VALID 090448Z - 090615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL REMAIN SOME CONCERN ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB INTO THE FIRST
   PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A DIMINISHING INTENSITY TREND IS
   LIKELY TO GRADUALLY OCCUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 CONTINUES
   UNTIL 06Z. ALTHOUGH SOME SPATIAL EXTENSION OF WATCH 456 COULD BE
   NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS FAR NORTHERN KS IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A MULTI-HOUR DURATION SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO SPREAD
   SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE I-80 VICINITY AT KEARNEY AS OF 0430Z. A
   SEVERE HAIL RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH THIS
   STORM. THIS PARTICULAR SUPERCELL IS FLANKED BY A
   BROADER/WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR THE MCCOOK/LEXINGTON
   AREAS...AND A LESS INTENSE REMNANT SQUALL LINE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
   NEB.

   THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STEADILY COOL /UPPER 60S AND LOWER
   70S F TEMPERATURES/ WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN NEAR-SURFACE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER...IN THE PRESENCE OF A WIND PROFILE
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE SPEEDS/STRONG LOW-MID TROPOSPHERIC VEERING
   AS PER THE HASTINGS WSR-88D VWP...ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WILL
   LIKELY BE MAINTAINED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS VIA CONTINUED OUTFLOW
   INTERACTIONS/SUPERCELL PERSISTENCE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL STORM
   RELATIVE INFLOW...ALBEIT INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. INCREASING
   BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY WILL LIKELY HINDER SEVERE-CALIBER WIND
   GUSTS...BUT SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED PERSISTENT SUPERCELL.

   ..GUYER.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40450060 41130006 41229844 41509738 40929703 39889716
               39599798 39489943 40030039 40450060 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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