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Mesoscale Discussion 1529
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1529
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN KS AND WRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251955Z - 252130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...THEY WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
   PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS
   SERN NEB HAS STALLED ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN NERN KS PER VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS UNDERGONE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION...
   WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 2500-3500 J/KG
   MLCAPE. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY TO THE N OF THE
   MCD AREA...BUT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-30 KT SHOULD ALLOW ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO BECOME ORGANIZED
   AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
   INSTABILITY. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH WEAK IN
   MAGNITUDE...MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. ONE SUCH
   THUNDERSTORM OVER DICKINSON COUNTY KS HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE
   BOUNDARY...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WITH TIME. FURTHER TO THE SW IN CNTRL KS...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE DEPICTS TOWERING CU...WHICH MAY ALSO STRENGTHEN AS THEY
   MOVE EWD.

   ..GLEASON/CARBIN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38239682 37959817 37949915 38239947 38619931 39209738
               39479631 39469549 39469443 39009420 38639407 38399423
               38389467 38239682 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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