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Mesoscale Discussion 1530
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0327 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH SERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 252027Z - 252230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
   OVER CNTRL SD. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A SFC
   TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL SD WITH SHARPENING OF THIS FEATURE PARTLY IN
   RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD
   THROUGH WCNTRL SD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A
   SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IN VICINITY OF THE
   TROUGH WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
   PRIMARY MOIST AXIS SUPPORTING 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. RAP PFCS
   INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 700 MB ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
   AT THE BASE OF THE EML. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD
   CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM. ONCE
   STORMS DEVELOP...LARGE CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 35-45 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY SMALL
   AND SHOULD SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST TORNADO
   THREAT. NEVERTHELESS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODES. WITH TIME THERE
   MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR SOME STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS AS THEY
   DEVELOP SEWD LATER THIS EVENING.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43379877 43399980 43620065 44130116 44990092 45320019
               44879844 44289798 43699815 43379877 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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