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Mesoscale Discussion 1530
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1530
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0246 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NEB...ERN CO...NRN/WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 091946Z - 092145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP E/SE FROM PARTS OF WRN NEB
   AND ERN CO WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION HAS RECENTLY COMMENCED
   OVER THOMAS/HOOKER COUNTIES IN NEB JUST AHEAD OF A TROUGH ARCING
   FROM NEAR RAP TO LIC AS OF 19Z. ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CU IS EVIDENT
   FARTHER S/SW INTO NE CO AND WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION...THESE SHOULD
   SERVE AS THE GENESIS FOR FURTHER TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WITH PLUME OF 60S
   DEW POINTS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND AMIDST STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN THE 12Z LBF RAOB...AIR MASS IS MODERATELY TO
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /0-6 KM
   VALUES FROM 20-25 KT PER LNX VWP DATA/...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL
   SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS...TRANSITIONING TO A
   PREDOMINANT WIND RISK AROUND 22-00Z.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41980109 42370058 42349953 42179890 42009858 41179815
               40069865 38859974 38030113 38000192 38340335 38900362
               39260334 39970269 40470213 41980109 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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