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Mesoscale Discussion 1531
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ND INTO NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252130Z - 260000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF ND INTO NWRN MN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY IMPLIES RECENT AGITATION OF
   HIGH-BASED CUMULUS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN ND -- POTENTIALLY A RESPONSE
   TO SUBTLY BOLSTERED DEEP ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE
   PERTURBATION CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS. DESPITE WEAK
   CONVERGENCE NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO MOISTER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD
   CNTRL/ERN ND. HERE...SFC HEATING AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S
   TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2500 J/KG...WHICH MAY FOSTER
   INTENSIFICATION OF UPDRAFTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD. INTENSE CONVECTION
   MAY ALSO BLOSSOM FROM A BROAD...LOWER-BASED CU FIELD AMIDST RICHER
   MOISTURE TOWARD NERN ND/NWRN MN...WHERE CAPPING IS LIMITED AND
   INSTABILITY IS MODERATE TO STRONG. ALSO...CONVECTION NEAR THE SD/ND
   BORDER MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF FAR SRN ND IN THE SHORT-TERM.

   HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGESTS DEEP SHEAR IS WEAK TO MODEST
   AREA-WIDE...GENERALLY AOB 25 KT IN MAGNITUDE. A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR
   WIND/HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS/MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS. HOWEVER...OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE
   LIMITED...THUS MITIGATING THE SVR RISK TO SOME EXTENT.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45969980 46220188 48160187 48840086 48929899 48939760
               48879563 48569509 47919542 46879683 46319797 45969980 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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