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Mesoscale Discussion 1531
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1531
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092125Z - 092300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS MOVING ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL AR WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD EWD/ESEWD INTO ERN AR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...POSING THE
   RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES SPREADING EWD/ESEWD
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN AR AROUND 25 KT. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
   THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST UNSTABLE NEAR/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...WHERE
   STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST LOWER/MIDDLE-70S SFC DEWPOINTS IS
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. FARTHER S...ANTECEDENT
   CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MITIGATED STRONGER DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH
   VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS MANY CLOUD-FREE AREAS ALLOWING FOR ONGOING
   PARTIAL AIR-MASS RECOVERY. LZK VWP SAMPLES 25-30 KT OF WLY/NWLY
   STEERING FLOW THAT WILL ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING
   MCS...THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION
   WILL BE ROBUST AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SYSTEM COLD POOL AS IT
   ENTERS THE RECOVERING AIR MASS. CAPPI DATA AT 9 KM AGL SUGGEST A
   TENDENCY FOR CONVECTIVE CORES TO RECENTLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THIS MAY
   ONLY BE A TEMPORARY TREND...ESPECIALLY NEAR/N OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE
   STRONGER BUOYANCY EXISTS. ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/ESEWD TOWARD THE MS RIVER
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS INCLUDES THE LITTLE ROCK AREA.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34449172 34829283 36039241 36229164 35819027 34559069
               34449172 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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