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Mesoscale Discussion 1532
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1532
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252152Z - 260015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AN ISOLATED
   SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST
   ISOLATED CONVECTION DEEPENING ALONG A WEAK SFC WIND-SHIFT AXIS FROM
   SRN LOWER MI CURVING WSWWD AND THEN WWD INTO ERN IA. THIS BOUNDARY
   IS ALSO MARKED BY A WEAK DEWPOINT CONTRAST...WITH ATTENDANT
   CONVERGENCE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY THE SRN-LAKE-MI SEA-BREEZE
   CIRCULATION S OF THE CHICAGO AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/TSTMS MAY
   DEVELOP INVOF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE AIR
   MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY -- DRIVEN BY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- WHICH MAY
   SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE CELLS. THE PRESENCE OF 35-40 KT OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS FROM THE CHICAGO AREA EWD -- ORIENTED WITH
   SOME ORTHOGONAL COMPONENT TO THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS -- SUGGESTS THAT A
   FEW WEAKLY ROTATING CELLS MAY EVOLVE PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL. WEAKER DEEP SHEAR...THOUGH STRONGER
   BUOYANCY...EXISTS FARTHER W. A SVR TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
   THE REGION. THOUGH...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...AND
   WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE/LIMITED DEEP ASCENT...ANY SVR RISK SHOULD
   REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   41499100 41398742 42008505 42048423 41348396 40818490
               40578680 40708982 41209149 41499100 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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