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Mesoscale Discussion 1533
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092151Z - 100015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...MID/LATE-AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A PAIR OF
   BOUNDARIES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS: /1/ ONE BOUNDARY EXTENDING NW/SE FROM W OF ALVA
   TO THE OKC/NORMAN AREA AND FARTHER SE TO SHREVEPORT...AND /2/
   ANOTHER BOUNDARY EXTENDING E/W FROM SRN PARTS OF THE TX S PLAINS EWD
   TO PARIS TX WHERE THE TWO BOUNDARIES ROUGHLY INTERSECT.

   STRONG BUOYANCY EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
   OF 2000-4000 J/KG -- STRONGEST NEAR/E OF THE NW/SE-ORIENTED BOUNDARY
   WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL SUPPORT
   STRONG UPDRAFTS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH ARE WELL-MANIFEST IN RECENT
   9-KM CAPPI DATA. HOWEVER...VWP DATA ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE A
   DEARTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY
   DISORGANIZED/PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE.

   COLLAPSING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND
   GUSTS...AIDED BY ABUNDANT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES OF
   1.8-2.1 INCHES PER GPS DATA -- ENCOURAGING WATER-LOADING PROCESS.
   THESE PW VALUES...COMBINED WITH ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM
   MOTIONS...SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN.
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
   EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32839850 32910077 33340136 33790102 33949887 34299782
               34999776 35459751 35549581 34959474 33759466 33219562
               32839850 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2014
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