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Mesoscale Discussion 1533
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0459 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...FAR NERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252159Z - 252330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...SO ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
   AREA...WITH A COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
   KS INTO SERN CO...A SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS TO THE NORTH OF DDC...AND
   ANOTHER SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CO. A SEVERE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   NEAR THE WRN KS LOW...WITH TCU NOTED SOUTH OF THIS STORM ALONG A
   TRAILING SFC TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD INTO WW
   451...AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED WWD IF
   ADDITIONAL NEW STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
   MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN THIS
   REGION...WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. 

   FURTHER SW...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN NM/SERN
   CO...WITH ADDITIONAL TCU NOTED NWD INTO E-CNTRL CO. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NE...BUT STRONG
   INSTABILITY AND A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL. DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WW
   ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS UNLIKELY.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36220318 36250363 36600432 37050434 37790418 38970361
               39080264 39070200 39120095 39050013 38999981 38599963
               38179959 37889964 37550000 37020093 36570208 36360267
               36220318 

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Page last modified: July 25, 2015
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