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Mesoscale Discussion 1534
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0522 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NWRN KS...NERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252222Z - 260045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM
   OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AROUND THE BLACK HILLS AREA IN SWRN SD AND
   SWD ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF DEEPER PBL MIXING INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. A FEW ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN THIS REGIME -- PERHAPS
   AS FAR S AS NWRN KS/NERN CO WHERE VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CU
   DEVELOPING IN THE MOIST/UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL
   WIND FIELDS INDICATE WEAK CONVERGENCE...AND WATER VAPOR LOOPS
   SUGGEST WEAK LARGE-SCALE VERTICAL MOTION. AS SUCH...CONVECTION
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...WITH TSTMS FORECAST TO SPREAD
   EWD/ESEWD INTO RICHER PBL MOISTURE ENCOURAGING MODERATE TO STRONG
   BUOYANCY...A FEW SVR STORMS MAY ENSUE. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ON THE
   ORDER OF 35-50 KT WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...
   WITH ISOLATED SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE. THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
   OF THE SVR RISK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.
   HOWEVER...IF A LOCAL CORRIDOR OF GREATER SVR WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL
   WERE TO BECOME EVIDENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPSCALE-GROWING AREA
   OF CONVECTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WW ISSUANCE MAY NEED TO BE
   CONSIDERED -- A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO ATTM.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40799973 39789994 39510105 39760221 41090338 42500355
               43820296 44220202 43630106 40799973 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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