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Mesoscale Discussion 1534
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1534
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SW SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092208Z - 092315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A
   MARGINALLY  SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
   LAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS FAR SW SD INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE ON THE
   BACKSIDE OF THE WEAK SFC LOW LOCATED OVER WRN NEB. MODEST BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAS LED TO WEAKER MLCAPE
   VALUES /AROUND 1500 J/KG/ THAN FURTHER EAST...AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AROUND 25 KT OR LESS SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT ORGANIZATION/UPSCALE
   GROWTH POTENTIAL. BUT...A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AIDED
   BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...ESPECIALLY AS THE STORMS MIGRATE EWD TOWARD A
   MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO WRN/CNTRL NEB...WHERE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457 IS LOCATED. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   STORMS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41320233 41190255 41120285 41120320 41310367 41730400
               42640402 43120394 43350381 43510326 43330267 42790224
               41750214 41320233 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2014
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