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Mesoscale Discussion 1535
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0558 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN SD

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 452...

   VALID 252258Z - 260030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 452 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SVR RISK CONTINUES WITHIN WW 452...AND IS
   TRANSITIONING TO A DMGG-WIND RISK THAT WILL SPREAD ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS
   PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN SD.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT INITIAL
   MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE CONGEALING INTO AN MCS OVER N-CNTRL
   SD. THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
   ACCELERATION/BOWING ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS FAULK AND EDMUNDS COUNTIES --
   AIDED BY AN ESTABLISHING COLD POOL AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELL-RELATED
   MCV STRUCTURE -- WITH FLANKING/BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION EXTENDING
   WWD INTO FAR ERN DEWEY COUNTY. THE DEVELOPING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO
   SPREAD ESEWD/SEWD INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR -- AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL
   SLYS MAINTAINING AN INFLOW FEED OF MODESTLY RICH PBL MOISTURE
   BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE THE ABR SAMPLES ONLY
   MODEST DEEP SHEAR...STRONG HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
   CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND AN ESEWD/SEWD-SPREADING RISK FOR DMGG
   WIND GUSTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SVR RISK WILL BE LOWER FOR
   AREAS W AND IN THE WAKE OF THE EVOLVING MCS.

   ..COHEN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   43860099 45890101 45939792 43909792 43860099 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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