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Mesoscale Discussion 1535
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1535
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0518 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWESTERN
   MINNESOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 092218Z - 100015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...POCKETS OF INSOLATION HAVE LOCALLY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AMIDST MIDDLE-60S SFC DEWPOINTS ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
   A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SLOWING ADVANCING EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE DAKOTAS. THIS CONTINUES SUPPORTING TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN
   FRINGES OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
   BUOYANCY IS ONLY MODEST AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE MIDDLE
   70S. HOWEVER...THIS IS ALSO RESULTING IN SMALL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT
   SPREADS AND LOW LCL/S...WITH THE MODESTLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
   MOISTURE ENHANCING BUOYANCY IN THE LOWEST 3 KM AGL. AND...WITH
   AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH /1/ A SFC TROUGH DRAPED
   ACROSS THE AREA.../2/ A WEAK MCV CENTERED INVOF GRANT COUNTY...AND
   /3/ THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO AND/OR A
   WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF STRONGER BUOYANCY /LOW-LEVEL AND
   THROUGH A DEEP LAYER/ AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   PREVENT A GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44899746 45429672 45479607 45019553 44569543 44179611
               44129746 44899746 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2014
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