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Mesoscale Discussion 1536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0613 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN MN...ERN SD...FAR NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252313Z - 260145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A RISK OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
   SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD FROM WW 452.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS IS EVOLVING IN N-CNTRL SD AS ADDRESSED IN
   RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 1535. FORWARD MOTION OF THE LEADING/BOWING
   CONVECTIVE LINE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35-40 KT...SUGGESTING THAT
   THE ASSOCIATED DMGG WIND RISK WILL SPREAD E/SE OF UPSTREAM WW 452 IN
   THE 0015-0130Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY WARRANT DOWNSTREAM SVR TSTM
   WATCH ISSUANCE AS THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION REMAINS MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. SOME
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXACT MCS EVOLUTION/MOTION AND THE
   RELATED TIMING/LOCATION OF DMGG-WIND RISK EXITING WW 452.
   HOWEVER...DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE NEW WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   42969674 43109822 43569857 43749783 44509732 45429686
               45559561 45039485 44159485 43319544 42969674 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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