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Mesoscale Discussion 1536
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1536
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0532 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092232Z - 100000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 457 FROM N-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL
   KANSAS. SHOULD STORMS FORM...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS TO BE TRYING TO OCCUR IN
   AREA OF AGITATED/TOWERING CU ACROSS N-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS
   CU FIELD APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   IN THE VICINITY OF WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY
   EXTENDING SEWD FROM CENTRAL NEB INTO ERN KS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY CONGEAL
   WITH A FORWARD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER EMANATING FROM ONGOING
   WESTERN KS SEVERE STORMS. THE CURRENT AIRMASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPPORTING ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION IN A SIMILAR PARAMETER SPACE
   TO THAT FURTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   457...ALBEIT FURTHER REMOVED FROM INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER IMPULSE
   AND SFC LOW. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WATCH 457.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38719853 39129845 39439833 39689803 39749760 39609722
               39399691 38879625 38439617 38059664 38079754 38299820
               38719853 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2014
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