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Mesoscale Discussion 1537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151934Z - 152130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED
   AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL ND THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SFC
   LEE TROUGH AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EWD FROM MT OVER
   THIS REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS
   ND...AS SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S W...TO MID 60S
   FURTHER E. CONTINUED WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH
   WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WRN ND OVER
   THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PER RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 20 KT AND A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT
   PER KMBX/KBIS RADARS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN
   MAINLY MULTICELL STRUCTURES...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF EVEN STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
   WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 08/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47420349 48380264 49010191 49030042 48300019 46810099
               45960206 46080323 46490364 47040371 47420349 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2016
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