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Mesoscale Discussion 1537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0646 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...W-CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

   VALID 252346Z - 260115Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 451...WITH THE
   GREATEST NEAR-TERM THREAT ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER STORMS THAT PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   ACROSS NERN KS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY DISORGANIZED
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ONGOING AS OF 2330Z ACROSS NRN KS.
   HOWEVER...STRONG STORMS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WRN PART OF WW
   451...WITH THIS ACTIVITY BEING FOCUSED ALONG A ZONE OF ENHANCED
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A WEAK
   SFC TROUGH. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS
   WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES NEAR AND
   SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
   OUTFLOW WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MOVING INTO CNTRL KS OVER
   THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
   ANY CELL THAT FAVORABLY INTERACTS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 

   FURTHER EAST...THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN
   KS INTO WRN MO. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY IN ERN KS/WRN MO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HRS...BUT CURRENT RADAR/VIS IMAGERY TRENDS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
   THIS SCENARIO. THE SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA MAY INCREASE AGAIN
   THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH POTENTIAL UPSCALE GROWTH OF THE
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NRN KS AND/OR THE CURRENT CLUSTER ACROSS
   W-CNTRL KS.

   ..DEAN.. 07/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37729837 37729901 37729923 37729933 37729937 37729955
               37839956 38709959 38979958 39069958 39139958 39659793
               39659790 39659737 39659523 39659520 39659512 39659512
               39459420 39139409 38569405 38479406 38459406 38049508
               37749769 37729770 37729777 37729787 37729826 37729837
               37729837 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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