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Mesoscale Discussion 1537
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1537
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0557 PM CDT SAT AUG 09 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 092257Z - 100000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS SW
   KS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING
   TO THE SOUTH OF WW 457.

   DISCUSSION...A SFC BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
   EXTENDING SWWD FROM W-CNTRL KS INTO SW CO. TOWERING CU AND ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY INTERACT WITH SWD ADVANCING
   OUTFLOW FROM STORMS NEAR GOODLAND KS. WHETHER THIS WILL BE
   PRODUCTIVE IN FORCING NEW...ROBUST UPDRAFTS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
   HOWEVER...SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOUTHWARD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL
   STORM CLUSTERS MOVING E/SE ACROSS SW KS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
   WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
   STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
   STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FURTHER
   DEVELOPMENT AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW 457.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 08/09/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   36989997 36970125 37060203 37400232 37740232 38090220
               38290212 38570166 38710147 38710056 38449954 38039891
               37709890 37359931 36989997 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2014
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