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Mesoscale Discussion 1538
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451...

   VALID 260232Z - 260400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 451
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ON WESTERN
   AND NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF WW 451...BUT A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IS
   EXPECTED WITH TIME AND NO ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
   DOWNSTREAM.

   DISCUSSION...THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS WW 451 AS OF 0230Z IS
   IN THE FAR WRN PART ACROSS W-CNTRL KS AND THE FAR NERN PORTION
   ACROSS NWRN MO. ACROSS FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO...TWO RELATIVELY
   ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS HAVE EVOLVED OUT OF EARLIER ELEVATED
   CONVECTION. THESE CLUSTERS WILL AFFECT THE FAR NERN PORTION OF WW
   451 AND AREAS DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY BEING
   AIDED BY ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS IA
   AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT MOVES ESEWD. IN THE
   SHORT TERM...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND...BUT DECREASING SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WITH TIME SHOULD TEMPER THE
   OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND NO DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED
   AT THIS TIME. 

   TO THE WEST...STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING TO THE NE OF DDC...WITH SOME
   BACKBUILDING NOTED ALONG A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT IS NEUTRAL AT BEST IN THIS REGION...SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME AS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
   BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WHILE A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME IS
   POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON SHORT-TERM TRENDS...NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..DEAN/HART.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37739938 37730030 37820055 38240072 38779988 39209842
               39439697 39939524 40189320 40079264 39619171 39059183
               38829319 38349476 38099635 37829812 37739938 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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