Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1538
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1538 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1538
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN SD...ERN WY...AND NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152030Z - 152200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION MAY POSE AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. DUE TO THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE RISK...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SRN
   FRINGES OF THE BLACK HILLS IN SWRN SD AND HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS ERN
   WY AS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING HAS ENCOURAGED SFC PARCELS TO REACH
   THEIR LFC. NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE MCD AREA REMAINS
   MODEST...GENERALLY 25 KT OR LESS. THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
   SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
   THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. REGARDLESS...STEEP LOW AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GIVEN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ACCELERATING CONVECTIVE
   DOWNDRAFTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
   CONVECTION MOVES EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. SPORADIC LARGE
   HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   BLACK HILLS IN SWRN SD. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO
   WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY TERRAIN DRIVEN GIVEN A LACK OF OBVIOUS
   FORCING MECHANISMS.

   ..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 08/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...RIW...

   LAT...LON   42540224 41940401 41890536 42400551 42780593 42850671
               44420673 44670508 44650371 44280249 43290205 42540224 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 15, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities