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Mesoscale Discussion 1539
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT MON AUG 15 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW OH...SE INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 152051Z - 152215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AND A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
   OCCUR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED WARM SECTOR STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS SW
   OH/SE INDIANA THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...NEAR AND JUST S OF A SURFACE WARM
   FRONT.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE NEAR
   1500 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED
   ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
   LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  A BRIEF TORNADO
   MAY OCCUR WITH STORMS NEAR THE WARM FRONT THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
   WELL AS ISOLATED STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS.  THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
   THREAT AND EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE SUGGEST THAT A WATCH WILL
   PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED.

   ..THOMPSON.. 08/15/2016


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

   LAT...LON   39998509 40158440 40138359 39928322 39558306 39308326
               39168382 39058473 39118530 39408562 39658545 39998509 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2016
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