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Mesoscale Discussion 1539
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1539
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1054 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN SD...SRN MN...NWRN IA...NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453...

   VALID 260354Z - 260600Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN MCS SPREADING ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN
   CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS IN WW 453.
   WHILE STORMS WILL SPREAD ESEWD/SEWD OUT OF WW 453 DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS...ADDITIONAL/DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...A LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS CONTINUES
   TRACKING ESEWD/SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO SWRN MN WITH A HISTORY OF
   OCCASIONAL 40-50-KT OBSERVED SFC WIND GUSTS. MODERATE MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES PRECEDING THE CONVECTIVE LINE SURMOUNTING RICH PBL
   MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE FOSTERING ADEQUATE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY FOR
   STRONG CONVECTION TO TRACK ESEWD/SEWD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT
   INTERACTS WITH 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE PROGRESSING BEYOND THE SRN/ERN EXTENT OF WW 453
   DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SVR RISK/CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
   SHOULD DIMINISH AS /1/ MLCINH FOR INFLOW INTO THE MCS GROWS WITH
   NOCTURNAL COOLING.../2/ LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS WEAK...AND 
   /3/ INFLOW-REGION VWP DATA IMPLY ONLY 10-20 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW
   YIELDING ONLY MODEST SYSTEM INFLOW. CONVECTIVE PROCESSING OF THE
   BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO NIL SVR POTENTIAL IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.

   ..COHEN.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43349881 44029626 44049487 43549409 43119393 42729425
               42399576 42679796 43349881 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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