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Mesoscale Discussion 1540
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1540
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0113 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260613Z - 260845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AS AN MCS
   MOVES SEWD ACROSS IA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN MARGINAL AND WW ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD MOIST SECTOR FROM
   CNTRL NEB EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F. AS A RESULT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED IN MUCH OF NEB AND IA WITH ESTIMATED MLCAPE RANGING FROM
   NEAR 2500 J/KG IN NRN NEB TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG IN CNTRL IA. A GRADIENT
   OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM NRN IA SEWD INTO SERN IA ALONG WHICH
   A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY TRACK DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN
   ADDITION TO THE INSTABILITY...THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT SIOUX FALLS
   SHOWS 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL
   SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN MCS. WITH A SPEED
   OF MOVEMENT NEAR 25 KT...MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE
   POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE
   POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES INTO CNTRL AND SERN IA WITHIN A FEW MORE
   HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43039267 43629386 43779434 43349462 42899503 42569551
               42369581 42099568 41479448 40999334 40909242 41159181
               41489157 41969147 42609201 43039267 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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