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Mesoscale Discussion 1541
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1541
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0206 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260706Z - 260930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS
   OF CNTRL AND ERN MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN MO WITH SFC DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY IN THE MID 70S F. AS A RESULT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
   ANALYZED ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN MO WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED
   IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS
   LOCATED IN NERN MO NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IS BEING SUPPORTED
   BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL MO GENERALLY SHOW 0-6 KM
   SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT COULD
   PERSIST. AS A SHORT BOWING LINE SEGMENT OVER COOPER AND HOWARD
   COUNTY CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO
   OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE MS RIVER IN FAR NERN MO AS WELL.
   THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO AN AIRMASS
   THAT IS BECOMING LESS UNSTABLE WITH TIME.

   ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39989199 39179277 38579302 38029239 37139185 37349065
               37849022 38799043 39989199 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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