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Mesoscale Discussion 1542
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1542
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261830Z - 262030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM NCNTRL AND
   NERN CO THROUGH WRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON. MULTICELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE...BUT SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
   THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS DESTABILIZING THE BOUNDARY
   LAYERS FROM CNTRL THROUGH NERN CO INTO NWRN KS AND WRN NEB WHERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF A
   LEE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB. THIS REGION
   RESIDES ALONG ERN FRINGE OF STEEPER /7.5-8 C/KM/ MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WHERE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AXIS OF
   1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS SHOULD UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
   AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING
   ALONG NWRN FRINGE OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   WHERE WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER RANGE FROM 15-20 KT AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS GENERALLY AOB 30 KT IN CO AND 30-35 KT IN
   WRN NEB. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT BOTH MULTICELL AND MARGINAL
   SUPERCELL MODES WITH ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. A FEW
   INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER WRN NEB
   WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   EXIST.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41940080 40780128 39360236 38700355 39190402 40780336
               42420267 42580140 41940080 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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