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Mesoscale Discussion 1543
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0447 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...N TX...SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 102147Z - 102315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG /LOCALLY SEVERE/ WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FROM NEAR LUBBOCK E/SE ALONG THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE DFW METROPLEX. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY FROM JUST EAST OF LUBBOCK TX
   EASTWARD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE DFW METROPLEX.
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT WITH LARGE SFC TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS. WEAK
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR LESS THAN 20 KT AND ONLY MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL LIMIT LONGEVITY AND ORGANIZATION...BUT DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200
   J/KG AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENHANCE STRONG DOWNDRAFT
   POTENTIAL. AS SUCH...A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE /WITH
   A COUPLE ALREADY OBSERVED NEAR SPS AND DFW/ THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AS DIURNAL
   COOLING/STABILIZATION ENSUES. GIVEN THE UNORGANIZED AND TRANSIENT
   NATURE OF THE THREAT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 08/10/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   34190115 34469938 34349683 34009628 33179587 32519602
               32249681 32569844 32779968 33130116 33420157 33830152
               34190115 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2014
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