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Mesoscale Discussion 1543
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1543
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261907Z - 262030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK
   HILLS OF SD. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SUPERCELL STORM MODES WITH A
   THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...A WW ISSUANCE
   WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY UNLESS TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST MORE
   THAN VERY ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STORM IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER
   THE BLACK HILLS OF SD WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION DUE TO WARM
   AIR AT BASE OF EML...BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO WARM. STRONG CAP AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT MIGHT LIMIT
   INITIATION TO PRIMARILY THE BLACK HILLS REGION...BUT AN ISOLATED
   STORM OR TWO MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER SWRN SD.
   OVERALL STORM COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SPARSE. THIS AREA
   RESIDES WITHIN BELT OF 30-35 KT WINDS AT 500 MB AND 40 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS
   THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43210269 44380333 44790269 44360192 43390129 43210269 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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