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Mesoscale Discussion 1544
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1544
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0234 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR ERN OH...FAR NRN WV...PA...SRN
   NY...FAR WRN CT...AND FAR NRN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261934Z - 262130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN OH...FAR NRN
   WV...NRN PA...AND SRN NY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
   S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER
   80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS COMBINATION OF
   LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS THE MCD AREA. HOWEVER...MULTIPLE LIMITING
   FACTORS...INCLUDING MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6 DEG C/KM OR
   LESS...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 20-25 KT...AND A LACK
   OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN NY INTO FAR NRN NJ AND WRN CT
   WITH ANY DISCRETE STORM THAT CAN BRIEFLY ACQUIRE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
   ROTATION TO SUSTAIN AN UPDRAFT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS THAT MAY
   SPORADICALLY PRODUCE TREE DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE LINEAR
   STRUCTURES FURTHER W ACROSS PA...FAR NRN WV...AND FAR ERN OH.

   ..GLEASON/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   40347938 40248093 40978165 41497960 41927792 42197606
               42277419 42037351 41537324 41217395 40647787 40347938 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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