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Mesoscale Discussion 1545
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH NCNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261943Z - 262145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT FOR
   ISOLATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF WRN THROUGH
   NCNTRL ND. THIS REGION WILL BE INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK IN THE 20Z
   OUTLOOK UPDATE...AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF MID AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
   A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NWRN ND. STRONG DIABATIC WARMING IS
   OCCURRING WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
   NEAR 90F...BUT TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE
   UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60F. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING AN AXIS OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE OVER WRN
   AND CNTRL ND. THIS REGION RESIDES ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
   RIDGE AXIS WITH 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS AS
   WELL AS SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

   ..DIAL/CARBIN.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47270341 48340242 48910117 48540025 47440142 46600255
               47270341 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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