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Mesoscale Discussion 1545
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111740Z - 111945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR
   THE MIDDLE TN/KY BORDER AREA AND SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
   THE KY/TN BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SMALL/WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN KY. STRONGER
   SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NORTHERN/MIDDLE TN...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S F...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE
   IN SBCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW...AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
   COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 30KT MAY RESULT
   IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE WHILE LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION FURTHER SUPPORTS
   REGENERATIVE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS.

   WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY TAKING ON MULTICELLULAR
   CHARACTER...THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/
   FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ACROSS MIDDLE
   TN...SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND
   VIGOR. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LINEARLY ALONG THE APPROACHING WEAK
   COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
   MARGINAL SHEAR...DEEP/WARM CLOUD LAYER AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
   CONTENT SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT ALONG
   WITH PERHAPS A GREATER CHANCE FOR LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

   ..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

   LAT...LON   35648741 35878789 36158777 36358751 36618674 36778520
               36728396 36468388 36118434 35898501 35718573 35648630
               35648711 35648741 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2014
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