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Mesoscale Discussion 1546
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1546
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/ERN TX AND LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112018Z - 112145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC DOWNBURSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH PULSE TO
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS SINKING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST
   STATES.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED STORM CLUSTERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET
   ALONG/AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT IS BEING SHUNTED SWD BY CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW. HOT/MOIST CONDITIONS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE BUOYANCY
   AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG. THIS DEGREE OF
   BUOYANCY WILL FAVOR AT LEAST WET MICROBURSTS IN ANY SHORT-LIVED
   CELL. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY WITH WRN EXTENT
   WHERE 0-6 KM VALUES ARE AROUND 10 KT PER GRK VWP DATA...SUGGESTING
   PREDOMINATELY PULSE UPDRAFTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER FLOW TO THE E ACROSS
   LA...CHARACTERIZED BY A BELT OF 20-25 KT W/NWLYS SAMPLED FROM 2-5 KM
   AGL IN SHV VWP DATA...SHOULD FOSTER SOMEWHAT LONGER-LIVED MULTICELLS
   WITH A COMPARATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
   TREE DAMAGE.

   ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30129917 30559795 31099623 31959448 32189261 31819124
               31399047 30849045 30539064 30329152 30059371 29509586
               29009736 28879841 28869914 29199953 29839946 30129917 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2014
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