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Mesoscale Discussion 1547
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PORTION OF SRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262050Z - 262245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR A SMALL PORTION OF
   SRN MO FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS A SMALL
   PORTION OF SRN MO. A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY SFC
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S...AND
   MLCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS CLUSTER IS
   ON THE SRN FRINGES OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20-25 KT PER
   LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. VWPS FROM AREA RADARS DO SHOW A VEERING
   WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER...BUT MAGNITUDES ARE 30
   KT OR LESS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COUPLED
   WITH THE MARGINAL WIND FIELD...THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND/OR
   DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
   MOTIONS AND THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..CARBIN/GLEASON.. 07/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37519169 38239097 37779037 36899097 36849169 37199212
               37519169 

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Page last modified: July 26, 2015
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