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Mesoscale Discussion 1547
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1547
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NW NV AND NRN CA INTO CENTRAL OREGON

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112142Z - 112345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SPORADIC STRONG /LOCALLY SEVERE/ WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND TACK NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WATCH IS NOT
   EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED
   AND UNORGANIZED.

   DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER/NEAR
   HIGHER TERRAIN IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEEP SELY FLOW OVER
   PORTIONS OF NW NV/NRN CA AND INTO CENTRAL OREGON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
   CLIMBED INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN
   PLACE /SFC DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S/ RESULTING IN VERY
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS SUCH...DCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500
   J/KG WERE NOTED IN 21Z MESOANALYSIS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
   INCREASE SOME INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROTATES
   AROUND UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE NRN CA COAST...VALUES SHOULD
   REMAIN LESS THAN 25-30 KT. GIVEN MAINLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR...OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED WITH MAINLY
   PULSE TYPE CONVECTION OR THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED.
   HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH INVERTED-V
   LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL AID IN SPORADIC STRONG
   /LOCALLY SEVERE/ WIND GUSTS. THIS COULD BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN TO
   ONGOING FIRES /REF SPC DAY 1 FIRE OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS/.
   ADDITIONALLY...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-11 AT 500 MB PER 12Z MFR
   RAOB/ MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER
   CELLS.  GIVEN THE UNORGANIZED AND SPORADIC NATURE OF THE THREAT...A
   WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..LEITMAN/WEISS.. 08/11/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...STO...MFR...PQR...EKA...

   LAT...LON   39571876 39121912 38921967 38832024 39032078 39392141
               40232242 40632267 41222330 42102336 43432269 43942250
               44712218 45112151 45272066 45141982 44901944 44431921
               43211910 42191902 40241886 39571876 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2014
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