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Mesoscale Discussion 1548
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1548
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OH...WV...WRN PA AND FAR WRN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121626Z - 121830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR
   MARGINAL HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS OH
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF SOME COOLING ALOFT. THESE
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AIDED BY HEATING WITH SOME BREAKING OF
   THE CLOUDS SPREADING EWD INTO WRN PA AND WV. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL FAVOR FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS AND HELP TO AND MAXIMIZE
   LONGEVITY. INCREASING 700 MB FLOW TO AROUND 30 KT AND AMPLE MOISTURE
   SHOULD HELP A FEW STORMS PRODUCE SEVERE WINDS...WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   A FEW CELLS MAY ACQUIRE BRIEF ROTATION AT TIMES...BUT OVERALL THE
   BEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED TOO FAR E FROM THE
   INSTABILITY AXIS.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   37618194 38128249 38398267 39028274 40068222 40978206
               41558192 41838136 42228025 42297969 42147916 41447881
               39457910 38587963 37848047 37508109 37618194 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2014
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