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Mesoscale Discussion 1549
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1549
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN VA INTO SRN MD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121839Z - 122045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DELMARVA...BUT THE THREAT MAY NOT BE
   GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A LONE SUPERCELL HAS MATERIALIZED OUT OF A PERSISTENT
   CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION AND FUELED BY A
   VERY MOIST AIR MASS AND UPSTREAM SURFACE HEATING. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
   NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK
   TORNADO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO DRAW IN
   HIGHER THETA-E AIR. OTHER CELLS MERGING INTO THIS AREA MAY CAUSE
   DISRUPTIONS TO THE PRIMARY STORM/MESO-LOW...BUT ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
   ROTATION COULD OCCUR. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PRIMARY
   THREAT.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   37767538 37287624 37157666 37187706 37327731 37537745
               37797732 37987701 38157643 38237591 38187555 38057530
               37897527 37767538 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2014
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