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Mesoscale Discussion 1550
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1550
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AND NERN ORE / S-CNTRL AND SERN WA / NWRN
   ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121957Z - 122130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON.  STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.

   DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1007MB LOW INVOF THE
   COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE TO THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM OF A POTENT
   EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION.  VISIBLE
   SATELLITE/MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING MCV OVER FAR NRN ID
   AND A CONVECTIVELY-AIDED CLOUD SHIELD OVER CNTRL AND E-CNTRL ORE. 
   SURFACE CONDITIONS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 90S INVOF THE WA/ORE BORDER
   WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S IN BETWEEN BOTH CLOUD FEATURES. 
   AN AGITATED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CNTRL ORE CLOUD SHIELD
   AND AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS ONCE STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER N-CNTRL AND
   NERN ORE.  STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND GRADUAL STORM-SCALE
   AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL BANDS/LINE SEGMENTS
   MOVING NWD ACROSS THE DESTABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE DISCUSSION
   AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/12/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR...

   LAT...LON   46501691 45941601 45181597 44781701 44592156 45272213
               46442177 46952122 46471987 46501691 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2014
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