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Mesoscale Discussion 1551
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1551
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0244 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN WY AND ERN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271944Z - 272145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD
   INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...WW
   ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS AS OF 19Z SHOWS DUAL LOWS...ONE OVER ERN
   MT...AND THE OTHER OVER CNTRL WY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE
   LOW OVER ERN MT...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHES NWD ALONG THE MT/ND
   BORDER AND INTO CANADA. THE POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS ACROSS
   MUCH OF NRN WY AND ERN MT IS CHARACTERIZED BY NLY WINDS...
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   50S TO AROUND 60. VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER
   TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS APPROACHING THE MCD AREA FROM THE
   W. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF NRN WY AND ERN MT
   SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM OVER THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY LIKELY.

   AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS
   THE REGION FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON...AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ALONG WITH A
   19Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GLASGOW MT SUGGEST MUCAPE AROUND
   1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD GENERALLY BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   AREA...ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THIS FAVORABLE
   COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY ALLOW ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NRN WY/CNTRL MT TO
   QUICKLY BECOME ORGANIZED AND POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS...PARTICULARLY WITH EWD EXTENT.

   MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
   CONVECTION SHOULD FORM/MOVE INTO THE MCD AREA BY 22-23Z.
   HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY
   OCCURRING IN S-CNTRL MT/NWRN WY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 07/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   47660794 47670631 47260476 46940436 45000496 44040621
               44030793 44350944 45030976 46560921 47660794 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2015
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