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Mesoscale Discussion 1552
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0350 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST WY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT...AND
   WESTERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 272050Z - 272215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
   EXTREME NORTHEAST WY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE TO
   BE COORDINATED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AS
   DISCUSSED IN MCD 1551.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING
   PRODUCT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A RELATIVELY RAPID INCREASE IN
   TSTM INTENSITIES WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE NNE ACROSS FAR NE WY
   AND FAR WRN SD IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN WY AND A N-S
   ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES
   FAVORS SUSTAINED/STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR
   WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZATION.  THE RECENT INCREASE
   IN STORM INTENSITIES IS LIKELY INDICATING THE LEADING EXTENT OF
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH.

   ..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44350564 45970428 46010238 44710180 43830196 42970203
               43020385 43530438 43590516 44350564 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2015
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