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Mesoscale Discussion 1553
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1553
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272129Z - 272330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN WY W/SW OF RECENTLY ISSUED SVR TSTM
   WW 456 WILL EXPERIENCE A RISK FOR ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS IN THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE W/SW OF WW 456 WILL
   BE UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE SRN EXTENT OF STRONG DCVA PRECEDING A POTENT
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GLANCING NRN/CNTRL/WRN WY PER RECENT WATER VAPOR
   LOOPS...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
   CONVECTION BASED ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR TRENDS.
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE SPREADING
   EWD/NEWD AMIDST ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. DEEP INVERTED-VEE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL
   ENCOURAGE SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATION AND THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED SVR WIND
   GUSTS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP
   SHEAR /25-30 KT SAMPLED BY THE RIW VWP/ ENHANCED BY MID-LEVEL FLOW
   SURROUNDING THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN OVERALL DEARTH OF TROPOSPHERIC
   MOISTURE -- E.G. PW VALUES AROUND 0.50-0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA --
   SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE/SVR COVERAGE SHOULD BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RIW...

   LAT...LON   44880884 44540739 44210624 43050626 42540729 42720829
               43290899 44210943 44880884 

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Page last modified: July 27, 2015
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