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Mesoscale Discussion 1554
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0444 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 272144Z - 280015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
   PORTIONS OF NERN MT AND WRN/CNTRL ND WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NEWD FROM WRN SD...NERN
   WY...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   SAMPLED BY THE 19Z GGW RAOB AND THE 20Z BIS RAOBS. THESE RAOBS
   INDICATE MODEST CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM EML...THOUGH COOLING
   ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING A STRONG
   MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT EROSION OF
   THE CAP FOR CONVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL -- POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WITH ANY
   MORE DISCRETE UPDRAFTS -- SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
   STEEP-TROPOSPHERIC-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 75 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ESTABLISHED BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE STRONGER
   DCVA APPROACHES FROM THE W. ALSO...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT AS LOW-LEVEL SRH INCREASES...THOUGH EVOLVING QUASI-LINEAR
   CONVECTIVE MODES WITH MORE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTION MAY LIMIT
   SUCH POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

   LAT...LON   47320408 48670573 49010399 48830208 47960053 46330055
               46120259 46330360 47320408 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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