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Mesoscale Discussion 1554
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1554
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0144 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NV / SWRN AND S-CNTRL ID

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 131844Z - 132045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH INTENSIFYING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 1835Z SHOWS AGITATED
   CU WITHIN AN AREA OF CLOUD STREETS PREFERENTIALLY ALIGNED WITH
   TERRAIN OVER THE ERN HALF OF NV.  SEVERAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   DURING THE PAST HR OVER NERN NV AND WILL LIKELY SLOWLY MATURE AND
   INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SPEED MAX
   ROUNDING THE BASE OF A TROUGH FARTHER W OVER PORTIONS OF NRN CA AND
   ORE.  ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH WEAKENING CINH
   AND A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
   STORM DEVELOPMENT.  

   MODIFYING THE 12Z LKN RAOB FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS --80/56--
   YIELDS AROUND 1200 J/KG MLCAPE AND THE REMOVAL OF EARLIER DAY CINH
   OVER NERN NV.  A LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EVIDENT OVER SWRN ID PER
   THE 18Z BOI RAOB WHICH FEATURES 400 J/KG MUCAPE AND MODEST LAPSE
   RATES.  VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
   CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IN THE FORM OF WEAK
   ROTATION WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS FARTHER S OVER NERN NV.  AS A
   RESULT...A FEW INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. 
   HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING WILL BE A 45-60 KT WIND GUST RISK THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS.  EVENTUALLY THE ACTIVITY FROM NERN NV WILL
   SPREAD NWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF ID AND MAY POSE AN ISOLD SEVERE
   THREAT.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   40451619 42401618 43181637 43421576 43091487 42441425
               41671385 40281410 39731466 39771582 40451619 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2014
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