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Mesoscale Discussion 1555
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 PM CDT WED AUG 13 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN QUARTER OF WA/NERN QUARTER OF OREGON/CENTRAL
   AND NRN ID/WRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 132148Z - 132345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE PAC NW VICINITY.  ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A
   CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  NEW WW ACROSS THIS AREA MAY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER CENTER OF
   CIRCULATION OVER SWRN OREGON...WITH ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COOL
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -16 C AT H5/ LYING ATOP THE PAC NW
   VICINITY.  THE COOL AIR ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED WITH
   AFTERNOON HEATING TO YIELD 500 TO LOCALLY 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE
   PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.  THE DESTABILIZATION HAS SUPPORTED AN
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
   HOURS...AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO THIS EVENING.

   KINEMATICALLY...A BELT OF 35 TO 45 KT SLY/SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
   THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER IS INDICATED ACROSS ERN
   WA/OREGON AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NV/ID/WRN MT.  THIS IS AIDING IN
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  AS
   SUCH...RISK FOR LOCAL EPISODES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR HAIL WITH
   STRONGER CELLS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WW
   ISSUANCE A POSSIBILITY N OF CURRENTLY ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH #460.

   ..GOSS/DARROW.. 08/13/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...

   LAT...LON   43592051 44192103 46272140 47262124 47872003 47791525
               46411304 44331199 43771329 44131522 44251791 43592051 

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Page last modified: August 13, 2014
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