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Mesoscale Discussion 1555
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1555
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WY...NEB PNHDL...NERN CO...NWRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272157Z - 280000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   OVER SOUTHEAST WY AND NORTHEAST CO THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING INTO
   THE NEB PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST KS.  A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...BUT COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS IS
   UNCERTAIN.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A RELATIVELY
   RAPID INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL WY DURING THE
   PAST 1-2 HOURS...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH. 
   SO FAR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH INTO
   NORTHERN CO...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
   SURFACE-BASED CU OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA.  CAM GUIDANCE IS IN
   AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN NEB INTO NORTHWEST
   KS...WITH ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO A MOIST AND VERY
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF A LINE FROM AIA-GLD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
   FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE STRONGER CELLS COULD ATTAIN
   ROTATION WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  MAIN CONCERN IS
   COVERAGE OF INTENSE STORMS AND WHETHER A WW IS WARRANTED.  WILL
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THIS REGION.

   ..HART/DIAL.. 07/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42290488 42970399 42710233 41530137 39960118 39140217
               39260359 40310446 42290488 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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