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Mesoscale Discussion 1557
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1557
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0147 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL-NRN ID / WRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 141847Z - 142015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST/LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY
   ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH STRONGER HEATING HAS BEEN DELAYED OVER FAR NRN
   ID INTO NWRN MT UNTIL RECENTLY...STRONG HEATING FARTHER S HAS LED TO
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AGITATED CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL ID. 
   THE 12Z BOI RAOB REVEALED AN APPRECIABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   /LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO 11 G PER KG/.  MODIFYING THE MORNING
   RAOB FOR 18Z SURFACE CONDITIONS --72/59-- OVER SWRN ID YIELDS AROUND
   1000 J/KG MLCAPE.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER THE
   COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN AROUND 30 KT SLY H5 FLOW OVER
   THE REGION AND SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR WEAK SUPERCELLS GIVEN
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30-35 KT.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE
   CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUST/LARGE HAIL THREAT.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/14/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...

   LAT...LON   45371629 47701620 48291454 48021327 47231277 45311229
               44371399 44471581 45371629 

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Page last modified: August 14, 2014
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