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Mesoscale Discussion 1558
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1558
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0111 PM CDT FRI AUG 15 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO N-CNTRL MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 151811Z - 151915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL LIKELY PREFERENTIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN IN SWRN MT AND MOVE INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  A 40-60 KT WIND GUST RISK AND LARGE HAIL
   THREAT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
   STORMS OVER FAR SWRN AND WRN MT AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN
   NOTED OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS IN N-CNTRL MT SWWD INTO SWRN MT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF
   CLOUD COVER AND THIS IS LEADING TO STRONG DIABATIC HEATING.  CU
   DEVELOPMENT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF GROWTH OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN TO THE S AND SE OF THE EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ROCKY
   MTN FRONT.  

   12Z UPPER AIR DATA THIS MORNING SAMPLED COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS
   /AROUND 2 DEG C AT H5/ COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT 12Z AT BOTH TFX AND
   BOI RAOB SITES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN THE E TO
   NE PROGRESSION OF A SPEED MAX ACROSS S-CNTRL ID TOWARDS THE MT/ID
   BORDER.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEWD OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS
   OVER THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY EARLY TO
   MID-AFTERNOON YIELD 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.  30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   WILL SUPPORT WEAK ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS AND AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.  THE STRONGEST FLOW WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
   OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH/SPEED MAX MOVES NE-NWD THIS AFTERNOON.  AS STORMS MOVE INTO
   THE HIGH PLAINS AND MATURE...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS /40-60 KT/.

   ..SMITH/WEISS.. 08/15/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   45641310 46691259 48431314 48931222 48871040 47880957
               46530946 45501005 45121128 44961219 45641310 

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Page last modified: August 15, 2014
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