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Mesoscale Discussion 1559
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1559
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...SERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 280241Z - 280515Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

   DISCUSSION...AN MCS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING MEASURED SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND SRN ND...LIKELY
   ADVANCING E OF UPSTREAM WW 457 IN THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ABR
   RAOB HIGHLIGHTS AROUND 2500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AIDED BY A MOIST PBL
   BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH LARGE DCAPE AROUND 1500
   J/KG...ORGANIZED/PROGRESSIVE COLD POOLS...SUBSTANTIAL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT/UPPER DIFFLUENCE IMPLIED BY WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND UPPER-AIR
   ANALYSES...FORWARD-PROPAGATION OF ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
   SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD THE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS E OF WW 457 WITHIN
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KT...AND
   A STRENGTHENING LLJ ENHANCING MESO-GAMMA-SCALE CONVECTIVE
   ELEMENTS...SOME RISK FOR SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

   ..COHEN/DIAL.. 07/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43019787 42939838 42889889 42919915 43259933 44769929
               46229945 46689839 46459705 45239660 43399683 43019787 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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