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Mesoscale Discussion 1560
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1560
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 280538Z - 280815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE
   MAY BE NEEDED IF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY CAN GROW UPSCALE OR INCREASE
   IN INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1001 MB LOW JUST TO THE
   NORTH OF NORTH PLATTE NEB WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN
   NEB. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NWD ACROSS ERN AND NRN
   NEB WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S F. A POCKET OF MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN NEB WHERE
   MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE NORTH
   PLATTE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION WITH SOME VEERING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE INSTABILITY
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO
   8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. WIND
   DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS. AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION IN NCNTRL NEB MAY
   BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL
   JET SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE EWD. A CONTINUED
   SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41229942 41070115 41250180 41540198 41890191 42430132
               42860030 42789872 41759850 41229942 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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