Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1561
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1561 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN INTO MIDDLE TN...WRN KY...MO BOOTHEEL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171821Z - 172015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE STORMS MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING
   ACROSS NRN MS INTO MIDDLE TN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   ACROSS NWRN TN/SWRN KY AND ALSO ACROSS CNTRL AR NEAR LIT...WITH
   ADDITIONAL CU ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN AR. HEATING WITHIN A VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG IN AN
   AREA BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND
   OUTFLOW/ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. 

   FROM AR INTO WRN TN...MID-UPPER FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...BUT 30-40 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER /PER VAD
   WINDS/FCST SOUNDINGS/ AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF
   STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...WINDS ARE BACKED AND HPX/LVX
   VAD WIND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR
   MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   DESTABILIZATION DECREASES WITH NERN EXTENT DUE TO EXTENSIVE
   CLOUDINESS. 

   GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE IS
   CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34999073 34489258 35299276 35819204 36199142 36459052
               36688963 37088867 37538736 37648652 37368599 36568631
               36228701 35778795 35418966 34999073 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 17, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities