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Mesoscale Discussion 1562
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN SD...CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 171856Z - 172000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
   THE BLACK HILLS REGION OF SD INTO CNTRL NEB.  LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  WW APPEARS WARRANTED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS MT INTO CNTRL WY NEAR CPR.  LATEST
   SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS FEATURE WITH CONTINUED EWD
   PROGRESSION EXPECTED INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY 22-00Z.  EARLY MORNING
   CONVECTION ACROSS SD HAS FORCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AGAINST THE
   BLACK HILLS THAT HAS SLOWLY MODIFIED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. 
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO MULTIPLE ATTEMPTS OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. 
   OTHER STRONG THERMALS ARE NOW ROOTED ALONG THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE NEB
   BORDER WHERE TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER BENNETT COUNTY
   SD/CHERRY COUNTY NEB.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
   THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS/PROPAGATES SEWD.

   ..DARROW/WEISS.. 08/17/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44720256 43079959 41359954 41490145 42870253 44070393
               44720256 

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Page last modified: August 17, 2014
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