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Mesoscale Discussion 1562
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1562
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...FAR SE ND...WRN MN...FAR NW IA...FAR NE
   NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280837Z - 281100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN MN. STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY ACROSS
   THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE BOWING LINE
   SEGMENT FROM FAR SE ND SWD ACROSS FAR ERN SD AND INTO NE NEB. THIS
   LINE IS LOCATED ALONG A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE
   MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE FSD
   WSR-88D VWP SHOWS STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WITH 50-55 KT OF SW
   FLOW NEAR 1 KM AGL. THIS MAY HELP THE BETTER-ORGANIZED CELLS
   EMBEDDED IN THE LINEAR MCS TO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
   GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO THE
   WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL DOWNTREND OF INTENSITY WITH CELLS
   EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE MARGINAL
   WITH TIME.

   ..BROYLES/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46399476 46679549 46689615 46459658 46069655 44969646
               43869680 43369725 42949786 42559781 42349725 42469645
               42879561 43539498 44329459 45489435 46399476 

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Page last modified: July 28, 2015
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